Religion remained an important predictor of voting behaviour in the 2024 General Election, analysis shows

Religion remains an important predictor of political behaviour and contributed to how people voted in the 2024 General Election, a new survey shows.

There were clear patterns of party support by religion in the contest, with Anglicans remaining core Conservative supporters and Catholic support for Labour continuing to erode. However, Labour’s, and especially the Liberal Democrats’, electoral support was strong among religiously unaffiliated voters in last month’s election.

The University of Exeter survey, fielded by YouGov on 5-8 July, shows 40 per cent of Conservative electoral support came from Anglicans – 45 per cent of voted Tory on 4 July. A total of 32 per cent of Catholics backed Labour.

In 2024, the Conservative’s support among Anglicans was 21 points higher than its support in the electorate as a whole, while it support among Catholics was 5 points higher.

The 13 percentage point gap between Roman Catholics and all voters in their support for Labour in 1983 has steadily dropped, to reach zero in 2024. Labour have lost any advantage among Roman Catholics – the second largest religious denomination in Britain amounting to 8 per cent of the population, while the Conservatives –contrary to country-wide trends – managed to significantly increase their support among Anglicans who make up almost a quarter of the population.

The survey was carried out by Dr Ekaterina Kolpinskaya and Dr Stuart Fox from the University of Exeter.

Dr Fox said: “Historically, the Conservative Party has dominated the ‘Anglican vote’, and since the 1980s has seen its support among Anglicans increase relative to its support in the wider electorate. This trend continued in the 2024 election.

“Labour, meanwhile, has increasingly become detached from its own traditional religious base, largely made up of Roman Catholics. Since the 1980s, Catholic support for Labour has eroded and shifted towards the Conservatives: this trend also continued in the 2024 election. There has been an erosion of Labour’s Roman Catholic vote and consolidation of the Conservative support among Anglicans since the 1980s.”

Dr Kolpinskaya said: “Religious identification has strong, statistically significant effects on voting preferences – alongside other predictors. Anglicans, in particular, are consistently drawn to the Conservative Party, while Roman Catholic – once a powerhouse for the Labour Party – remain moderately supportive of it even now.

“Religiously affiliated also tend to be stable in their vote choice. Between the 2010 and 2019 elections almost nine in ten Anglicans did not waver in their intention to vote Conservative. In contrast, almost one in five of the religiously unaffiliated changed who they voted for at least once between those four elections.

“Religion can be an anchor against wider partisan realignment that pushes voters away from their traditional party, and cushioning the blow of dramatic election defeats, as happened to the Conservatives with their Anglican support base in this election.”