New research reveals future of television consumption in the UK

Around 95% of UK households will be able to watch television over the internet by 2040, new research has revealed.

The national proliferation of fast broadband and smart TVs, and the allure of subscription-based services such as Netflix, Amazon Prime and Disney+, have driven the huge change in television delivery and consumption.

But 1.5 million people – accounting for the remaining 5% of households – will be left relying on traditional ‘linear’ terrestrial broadcasting unless there is government intervention to overcome barriers such as poor digital skills among some elderly demographics.

These are the headline findings from research delivered by the University of Exeter and partners, and commissioned by the government’s Department for Culture, Media & Sport (DCMS). Released today (Friday), the report, Future of TV Distribution, analyses the nation’s current television viewing practices and evaluates how likely they are to change in the next 16 years.

“Our research reveals the fundamental shift that has been accelerating in the way we consume television services,” says Jezz Vernon, principal investigator and Senior Lecturer in Film. “The vast majority of households now combine digital terrestrial television or satellite with broadband-based internet delivery – and some have even switched over completely to the latter. The combined popularity of video-on-demand subscription content, such as Netflix, Amazon and Disney+, and the internet services provided by UK public service broadcasters, including BBC iPlayer and ITVX, are undoubtedly fuelling this change. But the challenge is understanding the obstacles that will still persist for the unconnected homes in 2040.”

The report was commissioned in November last year, and was undertaken by a team comprising researchers at Exeter and the University of Leeds, and industry consultants at MTM 3 Reasons, Real Wireless and Cartesian. Together, they conducted interviews with the public, industry experts and consulted academic papers, industry studies and other data sets, to construct a picture of the nation’s television landscape.

They found that in 2023, 87% of UK households had access to an internet-enabled primary TV, and 18% used the internet exclusively to watch television programmes. But around 17% of households depended upon digital terrestrial television for their viewing, which included 13,000 without broadband infrastructure, and 1.7 million homes who could not afford to pay for broadband or chose not to. And of those people without a broadband connection, 90% were aged over 55, and more likely to live in the north of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

By 2040, the researchers say, broadband will cover the entire country, with superfast broadband (speeds of 30Mbps and above) reaching at least 99.65% of homes. A projected 95% of households – 28 million – will use internet-delivered television services, with the proportion of those who use the internet only rising to 71%.

Of the remaining 5% of the population, an estimated 400,000 households will, however, choose not to connect to broadband, with 1.1 million having broadband but declining to connect their TVs to it for the purposes of viewing programmes.

Issues of affordability – of both broadband and on-demand subscriptions – and the perceived complexity of setting up these services were identified as potential major barriers for people. These ‘unconnected’ households tended to be in rural communities, were significantly older in profile, and had a lower income.

The report goes on to analyse a host of other issues such as the environmental impact of different TV distribution platforms, technological issues including the transmission spectrum, and comparisons with European neighbours.

“More research is needed into issues such as the perception of internet provided television versus digital terrestrial TV, and how subscription services might solve issues relating to home networks,” said Mr Vernon, who is in the University’s Department of Communications, Drama and Film. “But this research and report offers the most detailed picture yet of how our nation accesses its television services, and how any discussion around the future of terrestrial broadcasting must take account of those who cannot or will not embrace internet-delivered programmes.”

The findings of the report will raise questions around limitations of the current digital terrestrial television (DTT) infrastructure, said Mr Vernon, and whether this government will upgrade to a more advanced digital terrestrial system, or instead consider discussion around a future date for an entire switchover for the UK to internet delivered TV. The previous UK government committed to the future of DTT until at least 2034.

To read the full DCMS report, visit their website.