Risk-informed policies needed to avoid climate meltdown

Climate policies must account for faster-than-expected warming to “avoid the catastrophic impacts of not changing course”, say the experts behind a new climate risk tool.

A team of experts from the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) and University of Exeter warn that, on its current trajectory, the planet is ‘highly likely’ to experience temperature increases of 2°C by 2050, with a possible 25% loss of global GDP and over 1 billion people needing humanitarian aid.

The team predicted a 50% loss in GDP between 2070 and 2090 without immediate policy action in their recently published Planetary Solvency report.

Now the team have launched a new climate risk tool that addresses the discrepancy between climate projections and policy outcomes by providing a comprehensive overview of current and projected risks (up to 2050) across four key domains: climate, nature, society, and the economy.

The Planetary Solvency Risk Dashboard makes it possible to visualise and assess the risks of continuing our current course to exceed planetary boundaries – from the impacts of global food and water shortages on populations to the climate tipping points that, once triggered, could limit our ability to prevent the worst outcomes.

This supports the ‘situational awareness’ of decision-makers in government and financial markets, who face increased instability from escalating climate risks and fast-changing global contexts.

The dashboard also includes a novel risk commentary on nature, society and economy, and historical data from 1990–2025 to illustrate how risks profiles have worsened over time, as a result of slow climate action and improved knowledge about these impacts. 

Sandy Trust, IFoA Council Member and the Planetary Solvency Risk Dashboard‘s lead collaborator, said: “Nature is our foundation, providing food, water and air, as well as the raw materials and energy that power our economy. Threats to the stability of this foundation are risks to future human prosperity which we must take action to avoid.

“If implemented, this risk-led methodology would provide a clear tool for policymakers to avoid the catastrophic impacts that could be experienced if we do not change course, thereby supporting future prosperity.”

Professor Tim Lenton, from the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, said: “Our dashboard communicates how the risk of planetary insolvency has been escalating over time. We want this to be an easily accessible, regularly-updated resource that decision-makers can turn to. It can help us all see the urgency of the situation and inspire action to get humanity on a more sustainable path.”

Dr Jesse Abrams, from the University of Exeter’s Green Futures Solutions team, added: “Since we released the Planetary Solvency report less than two months ago, global events have only reinforced the planet’s trajectory towards the catastrophic impacts that threaten nature, society and economic prosperity.

“At the same time, extreme weather events are occurring ahead of schedule, with greater severity, and at a frequency that surpasses most scientific projections from just a few years ago. This makes it crucial to implement policies that account for the highest expected risks, until clear evidence shows us that these worst-case impacts have been avoided.”