Brazil presidential election
Commenting on the Brazilian presidential election, Dr Pedro Perfeito da Silva, Lecturer in Political Economy in the Department of Social and Political Sciences, Philosophy, and Anthropology, said:
“Brazil’s first round delivered a surprise. Flávio overcame his father’s legacy and is now the favourite, although this is far from certain. The other candidates, all on the right, took just over 7% combined; the right won São Paulo and Minas Gerais, the two largest electorates; and Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party will be the largest party in both houses of Congress, though short of a majority.
“The result surprised analysts. It likely reflects anti-incumbent sentiment, the government’s difficulty mobilising supporters and winning lower-middle-class voters in cities, discontent with the economy despite solid macroeconomic indicators, and disapproval of the Supreme Court’s growing role. The Banco Master scandal also mattered: recordings show Flávio asking the banker Daniel Vorcaro for money for a film about his father, but the scandal’s reach into the judicial and political establishment fed a perception of systemic corruption that hurt Lula more.
“Flávio has stressed corruption, the Supreme Court, and cutting the state and taxes. Lula has campaigned on national sovereignty, highlighting Flávio’s links with Vorcaro and Trump’s tariffs, then announced a rise in the Bolsa Família and a ban on online betting. His priority now is turnout: abstention was above 20%, the highest first-round figure since 1998. He must persuade absent voters he can deliver on jobs and working hours, and portray Flávio as a risk to social protection and to Brazil’s control over critical minerals and financial infrastructure such as PIX. Flávio, with momentum, can avoid confrontation and let discontent work for him.
“A Flávio victory would bring Brazil into line with Argentina, Chile, Colombia and Peru, giving South America’s largest economies right-wing governments aligned with Washington. It could weaken BRICS efforts to build alternatives to the dollar and complicate the EU–Mercosur agreement. It also shows the centre-left and the centre-right both struggling against a far right that, in Brazil, has absorbed or sidelined the traditional right.”
