How is the Conservative Party doing in the polls ahead of its conference?

Commenting ahead of the Conservative Pary conference, Dr Lizzie Simon, Lecturer in the Department of Social and Political Sciences, Philosophy, and Anthropology, said:

“Even the ‘kinder’ of two recent MRP polls suggests that the Conservatives have a lot of work to do if they are to reclaim their title as the biggest party on the right. While the data collected by Survation suggested that they would win just 19% of the vote to Reform’s 24% if there was a general election tomorrow, YouGov put the two parties neck and neck, on 21% and 22% of the vote, respectively.

“The Conservative Party Conference, which is due to start this weekend, will give us some clues as to how they aim to regain this title. Does Badenoch react more to Burnham or to Farage? And which people and places are the policies announced designed to appeal to? Both are questions political scientists will be paying careful attention to.

“The Conservatives have reason to be optimistic about their prospects of recovery. Badenoch’s net favourability rating has risen by a full 20 points, to -15, since last September. While this doesn’t sound like a particularly favourable favourability rating, it compares to Farage’s -45 rating, which has fallen from -31 this time last year. Over the same period, Reform’s momentum in the polls has collapsed – from vote intention figures in excess of 30% this time last year, to figures in the low twenties today – and Restore Britain has asserted itself as another challenger party on the right. Will the Conservative’s be able to seize opportunity over the next few days?”