Future of UK peatlands under threat due to climate change

The UK’s peatlands face an uncertain future amid the escalating impacts of climate change.

Peatlands are critical ecosystems for carbon storage and biodiversity, containing more carbon than all the world’s forests despite covering just 3% of the global land surface.

But new research reveals that vast areas of the UK’s peatlands, including the Flow Country UNESCO World Heritage Site, are likely to be unsuitable for peat accumulation by 2061–80 due to climate change.

The researchers urge for a shift in conservation strategies, with the findings highlighting significant regional differences.

Western Scotland emerges as a stronghold for peatlands, making it an urgent priority area for conservation efforts.

Using advanced bioclimatic models, the study projects substantial reductions in areas suitable for peat accumulation across the UK, with the Flow Country, Dartmoor, and the Peak District particularly at risk.

Even under moderate emissions reductions, many of these landscapes may no longer sustain the conditions necessary for peat formation.

However, western Scotland is projected to retain areas that remain suitable for peatlands, underscoring its importance in future conservation and restoration efforts.

Lead researcher Professor Dan Bebber, from the University of Exeter, said: “Our findings reveal a stark north-south divide.

“While western Scotland is likely to remain suitable for peatland, much of England’s peatlands, including Dartmoor and the Peak District, are projected to lose their viability.”

The Flow Country in northern Scotland, which contains one of the largest expanses of blanket bog in the world, is particularly vulnerable.

Under a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), up to 97% of its peatland may become unsuitable for sustained peat formation.

The study also highlights an increase of 44–82% in desiccation events affecting Sphagnum moss, a critical component of peat ecosystems, potentially leading to widespread moss die-offs and fundamental changes in the landscape.

Professor Angela Gallego-Sala, co-author and an expert on peatland and climate interactions, said: “Peatlands are vital carbon sinks, storing more carbon than all the world’s forests combined. The projected losses of suitable climate in England and parts of Scotland mean that our restoration efforts must adapt and alternative strategies considered where restoration may not yield the desired effects because of climate change effects.”

The study serves as a wake-up call to policymakers and conservationists about the challenges of managing peatlands in a changing climate.

Co-author Dr Jonathan Ritson, from the University of Manchester, said: “Although our research suggests an uncertain future for peatlands in England, this is also a wake-up call for how much urgent work is needed if we want them to survive under future climate.

The researchers stress the importance of combining global efforts to reduce emissions with localised strategies to adapt land management practices and safeguard ecosystems.

The University of Derby’s Dr Kirsten Lees, who is also co-author of the report, added: “Peatland resilience is an important area of research, as these ecosystems store vast amounts of carbon alongside providing a range of other services. Restoration of areas which are in poor condition is key to protecting these carbon stores. Our research shows that future changes in climate are a vital consideration when planning restoration projects, to ensure that work is targeted towards areas where peatlands can thrive.” 

“Climate change impacts on blanket peatland in Great Britain” is published in the Journal of Applied Ecology.