Electric trucks closer to ‘tipping point’ than many realise – and cities can lead the way

Cities hold the key to accelerating the transition to electric freight and boosting energy security, new analysis from C40 Cities, University of Exeter and Arup reveals.

Heavy-duty vehicles – though less than 10% of the global commercial vehicle fleet – account for 25% of transport-related CO2 emissions and are expected to see a doubling in global demand by 2050. 

While progress is being made in China and Europe, the global transition to electric freight remains uneven – with battery limitations, charging times, grid capacity and infrastructure gaps making trucks harder to decarbonise than passenger vehicles. In 2025, only 8% of trucks sold were electric, compared with 25% for passenger cars. 

However, new modelling in the ‘Accelerating Urban Freight Decarbonisation’ report, featuring data from Laneshift, an initiative from C40 and The Climate Pledge, reveals how close a ‘tipping point’ – a threshold beyond which a small additional nudge tips the market into rapid, self-sustaining change – in the electric freight market could be, and the consequences for energy security:

• The tipping point is closer than many would believe, with Beijing less than a decade away from having more electric trucks than conventional alternatives.China leads the world in this area, accounting for 80% of electric freight sales, and has already reached total cost of ownership (TCO) parity between battery electric and diesel vehicles. 
• Modelling across six countries shows that ambitious city-level action can advance national TCO parity by more than a year, with the largest gains in the heavy-duty segments where costs remain highest. 
• Decarbonising freight boosts resilience to energy shocks: After the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure pushed diesel prices up by roughly 30% globally, the report’s modelling shows that a sustained diesel price-hike of this magnitude brings forward cost parity for electric trucks by 5-7 years.  
• A rapid shift to electric vehicles (EVs) in the global freight market could displace nearly 5 million barrels of oil per day by 2030, equivalent to India’s entire daily oil consumption.

The report also reveals the key factors for driving adoption at the city level:

• To fully transition, zero-tailpipe-emission freight must cross three thresholds simultaneously: affordability, accessibility and attractiveness.
• By coordinating policies, developing e-truck transport corridors, and harnessing collective market power, cities can help to significantly shorten the timeline for achieving TCO parity.
• Achieving cost parity is not enough to ‘tip’ the market – accessibility and attractiveness are key. This is most clearly shown in Beijing where, despite TCO parity being achieved in 2025, the EV stock is not expected to outpace diesel for another decade. 
• Regulatory measures consistently outperform price-based subsidies and carbon taxes, particularly in cities where the initial share of EVs is low. 
• Cities have a critical influence over accessibility and attractiveness. Cities can use specific regulatory tools that function like mandates, such as low emission zones, priority access to charging points, and regional freight corridors, to increase the accessibility and attractiveness of electric trucks.
• Some low and middle-income countries are leading the way, withShenzhen banning light diesel vehicles from its Green Logistics Zones in 2018, and Mexico City and Rio de Janeiro installing fast-charging hubs ahead of national policy. 

Markus Berensonn, Head of Mitigation Research, C40 Cities, said: “City leaders have more power to shape the global logistics market than some would think. While achieving cost parity is a vital first step, our analysis shows that affordability alone is not enough to tip the market. This is where municipal action comes into play. By deploying a suite of local levers, cities are well-positioned to drive forward the critical accessibility and attractiveness thresholds that fleets need to transition.

Dr Cormac Lynch, Impact Fellow at University of Exeter – Green Futures Solutions, said: “Our modelling shows the electric freight transition is nearing a tipping point in leading cities much earlier than widely assumed. Once costs, infrastructure and policy align at the city-level, the shift to electric trucks can accelerate rapidly and irreversibly. This lays a clear path for city leaders to make a decisive difference. One that delivers a triple dividend of rapid emissions cuts, cleaner air, and a significant boost in resilience to global energy shocks.”

Christina Xiao, Senior Research Manager, C40 Cities, said: “This report, backed by new quantitative modelling and successful case studies from across the globe, provides city leaders practical evidence to show how – when different levels of government and cities work together – they can create a powerful multiplier effect, triggering a ripple effect that brings the global zero-tailpipe-emission freight tipping point closer.”

Léan Doody, C40 Partnership Director, Arup, said: “The report demonstrates that the transition to electric freight is no longer just an environmental question, but also a significant economic opportunity for cities and governments. Through Arup’s work across policy, infrastructure and system planning, we see first-hand how coordinated action can accelerate the development of cleaner, more resilient freight networks and deliver lasting benefits across the transport system.

The ‘Accelerating Freight Decarbonisation: A City Guide to EV Truck Tipping Points’ report (available here) is a strategic guide to accelerating electric freight adoption. It equips cities with local policy tools, highlights opportunities for regional and national collaboration, and pairs policy analysis with quantitative modelling to give city leaders and industry stakeholders a strategic path forward.

The report is a collaborative project between C40 Cities, Arup, and the University of Exeter, with support from The Climate Pledge. 

Its release precedes an official launch event on Science Friday during London Climate Action Week, before discussions continue at the Exeter Climate Forum the following week.